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Evening Decode: 13 August 2025

Global markets rallied on hopes of a U.S. rate cut, nudging European indices higher and offering a tailwind for small businesses tomorrow.
13 agosto 2025 di
Evening Decode: 13 August 2025
Paolo Maria Pavan

The Day’s Ledger

AEX: 900,11 (+0,20 %). A modest gain, suggesting stable investor sentiment and a positive turn compared to yesterday.

Euronext 100: 1 597,29 (+0,62 %). A stronger climb, highlighting broader strength among Europe's largest companies.

Why the market chose this tempo

Markets turned upbeat today following U.S. inflation data that came in softer than expected, a signal that the Federal Reserve may be primed to cut interest rates as soon as September. That prospect energized global sentiment, sending equities higher across continents.

Europe’s STOXX 600 and DAX lifted, with notable strength in tech and defense stocks. Optimism was further reinforced by towering odds of a Fed rate cut, now priced at well above 90 percent for September.

The geopolitical or economic thread that touched today’s prices

In the U.S., Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocated for a bold half‑point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, citing cooling inflation and labor stats. Markets greeted this with enthusiasm, helping drive major indices to fresh highs.

Global markets, including Asia, rallied. Japan’s Nikkei soared past 43,000, and worldwide benchmarks hit new highs. Investors interpreted this broad action as a vote of confidence in looser monetary policy and continued economic resilience ahead.Reuters

The AIDUMI lesson of the day

  • AEX: Steady rise (~+0,20 %), positive tone, minimal volatility.
  • Euronext 100: Stronger increase (~+0,62 %), large-cap strength reflecting favorable global sentiment.
  • Geopolitical/Economic driver: Cooling U.S. inflation and explicit calls for a Fed rate cut gave markets a supportive tailwind. 

Tomorrow 09:00 plan

  1. Monitor CET Germany CPI release: if price pressures stay mild, it confirms the dovish tilt across central banks.
  2. Align pricing or procurement if your business is interest-sensitive: low rates reduce financing costs; consider locking in cheaper loans or paying off expensive short-term credit.
  3. Boost discretionary spending or marketing where consumer demand is still strong, lower borrowing costs and positive sentiment can support sales.
  4. Track global cues, especially U.S. and Asian markets. A continued macro risk-on mood supports exports and investment plans.

Summary Table

ElementInsight
AEX+0,20 %, calm, stable upward trade.
Euronext 100+0,62 % , stronger advance, showing leadership from large-cap names.
DriverU.S. inflation cools and Fed rate-cut sentiment fuels global markets.
Domestic pulseNo new CBS data, focus stays on macro.
AIDUMI adviceUse lower rates as an opportunity, plan, invest, or borrow smartly.

Let’s stay pragmatic. Today’s rally reflects global optimism, especially around U.S. monetary policy. As small entrepreneurs, it's time to revisit cost structures: if borrowing costs are slipping, consider restructuring debt or investing in growth. And, just like global markets, stay alert for the next signal morning that could influence your business horizon.

Looking forward to decoding tomorrow’s market moves with you.

AUTHOR : Paolo Maria Pavan

Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ ZENTRIQ™

Paolo Maria Pavan builds systems that balance rules with freedom, clarity with transformation. In his third life, he writes and speaks openly about markets, governance, and risk, not as a trader chasing price, but as a reader of patterns, behaviors, and distortions. A serial entrepreneur shaped by failure and reinvention, he sees governance as a living force for trust and progress, and refuses to avoid the hard conversations that make it real.

Paolo Maria Pavan | Head of GRC at Zentriq


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